What Is an Aviation Activity Forecast?
Project Updates
What is a forecast?
In the airport master planning process, a forecast is developed to estimate the types and amounts of aircraft traffic an airport may receive in the future. For the Reno-Stead Airport Master Plan, the aviation activity forecast establishes the projected levels of based aircraft and aircraft operations at RTS for the 2025 baseline year through a 20-year planning horizon – out to 2045. This forecast is essential to the airport master plan process as it forms the foundation for evaluating future facility requirements, airfield capacity, landside development needs, and capital improvement timing.
Forecasting future aviation activity is a critical component of airport planning and facility development. As the designated general aviation reliever for Reno-Tahoe International Airport (RNO) and a base for multiple public-sector and private operators, RTS supports a diverse range of aviation activities. This includes business aviation, flight training, public safety operations, wildfire response, military activity, test and evaluation flights, and unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) operations. Understanding how each of these sectors is likely to grow at RTS helps RTAA plan safely and efficiently for the future.
The aviation activity forecast for RTS was developed using a combination of historical airport data, regional socioeconomic indicators, and national aviation trends. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approves all airport master plan forecasts, and approved the RTS forecast on July 8, 2026.
What does the RTS forecast say?
The RTS forecast identifies several data points to help RTAA plan for the future. By 2045, the forecast estimates there will be 251 aircraft based at RTS – an increase of 33 aircraft from the 218 that are based today. The forecast also projects the airport will see 17,000 more operations in 2045 than the 55,000 it saw in 2025, for a total of 72,000 operations per year. These increases suggest continued stable and manageable growth at the airport.
The forecast also identifies the most demanding aircraft (or aircraft grouping) that routinely utilizes RTS. This aircraft is considered the “critical aircraft” for an airport, and sets the dimensional requirements on the airport, such as the separation distance between taxiways and runways, and the size of certain areas protecting the safety of aircraft and people. For RTS, the current most demanding aircraft is a large airtanker aircraft used in firefighting, the McDonnell Douglas MD-87. That aircraft is expected to remain the critical aircraft through the 20-year planning horizon.
What happens next?
RTAA and the master plan project team will use the forecast as a lens to see the future of the airport. Will the airport have enough hangars to support the estimated based aircraft? Have there been FAA design changes that need to be accounted for so that RTS may continue to accommodate large firefighting airtankers? The forecast data is applied to the existing airport conditions as the team determines the facility requirements, which includes incorporation of the most current FAA design and planning standards required to accommodate the forecasted activity.
Once the facility requirements are established, RTAA will move to the alternatives phase. This is the part of the plan that explores different ways to build out the airfield over the next two decades.
Read the full RTS aviation activity forecast or explore other master plan materials in the Document Library.
